What is the economic value of Greenland that makes Mr. Trump want to buy it?

In addition to the military reasons that appeal to Mr. Trump, Greenland is increasingly valuable economically thanks to its rich mineral resources and favorable maritime conditions, especially in the context of climate change.

During his first term, Donald Trump once said the US should buy Greenland. This message has been repeated by the President-elect in recent days, along with the idea of ​​using economic power to annex Canada , regain control of the Panama Canal and rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.

An autonomous territory of Denmark since 1814, Greenland is the world's largest island, located near the North American continent, between the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans, with a population of about 57,000. The island has an area of ​​about 2.16 million km2, more than three times the size of Texas.

Greenland is partly controlled by Copenhagen in terms of foreign policy. The island is strategically located in the Arctic, east of Canada, and is home to a major US military base. It is particularly important in defending against potential Russian attacks, according to Ulrik Pram Gad, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute of International Studies.

"The US wants to make sure that no hostile power controls Greenland, because it could become a springboard to attack the US," Pram Gad told CNN .

Icebergs in Disko Bay, Ilulissat, western Greenland, June 2022. Photo: AFP

Beyond military reasons, Greenland is increasingly valuable economically, especially in the context of climate change. Klaus Dodds, professor of geopolitics at Royal Holloway, University of London, said that what could be even more appealing to Mr. Trump is Greenland's rich natural resource deposits .

In addition to oil and gas, the 2023 survey found that 25 of the 34 minerals considered “critical raw materials” by the European Commission are found on the island. These include large quantities of materials used in batteries, electric vehicles and wind turbines, such as graphite, lithium and rare earths. These materials are used in the electric vehicle industry, renewable energy and military equipment.

China now dominates global rare earth production and had restricted exports of the key minerals before Trump returned to the White House. “There’s no doubt that Trump and his advisers are very concerned about the stranglehold that China seems to have,” Dodds said.

As the Earth warms, Greenland’s vast ice sheets and glaciers are rapidly melting, potentially opening the door to oil drilling and mining for minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel and cobalt. An estimated 11,000 square miles (28,500 square kilometers) of the island’s ice sheets and glaciers have disappeared in the past three decades, an area roughly the size of the US state of Massachusetts.

Last year, the Danish government published a report detailing Greenland's mineral potential. It concluded that the Arctic island has "favourable conditions for the formation of ore deposits, including many important raw minerals".

Not to mention the melting ice makes mining easier, Phillip Steinberg, professor of geography at Durham University (UK), said that climate change makes the island's resources "more necessary".

Location of Greenland. Graphics: BBC

Greenland's other economic value is its maritime trade . The Northwest Passage shipping route runs along its coast and the island itself is part of the Greenland-Iceland-Britain strategic maritime zone.

Notably, melting ice makes routes shorter and more efficient. Ships in the Northern Hemisphere can also travel longer in the summer. For example, traveling through the Arctic Ocean from Western Europe to East Asia is about 40% shorter than traveling through the Suez Canal. According to the Arctic Council, shipping through the Arctic is expected to increase by 37% in the decade to 2024, partly due to the melting ice.

Professor Dodds said conditions along the routes around the island remained dangerous, but Mr Trump instinctively recognised the opportunities for shipping as the ice melted. In November 2024, China showed significant interest in a new route through the Arctic, deciding to work with Russia to develop shipping routes in the region.

Robert C. O'Brien, one of Mr. Trump's former national security advisers, said the president-elect has repeatedly called climate change a "hoax," but its consequences are one of the reasons he wants to make Greenland a U.S. territory.

"Greenland is a highway from the Arctic all the way to North America and the United States. Strategically, the Arctic is very important, it will become a key battleground in the future because as the climate warms, this area becomes a route to help cut down on the use of the Panama Canal," Robert C. O'Brien told Fox News .

Until now, Greenland’s resources have largely remained dormant. Oil and gas exploration is banned on the island for environmental reasons. Mining is hampered by red tape and opposition from indigenous people. This has left the economy dependent on fishing, which accounts for more than 95% of exports.

Greenland is seeking to boost its independence by diversifying its economy away from fishing. It opened a new airport in its capital Nuuk last November as part of a plan to boost tourism. But it remains dependent on less than $1 billion in annual subsidies from Denmark.

This situation raises an interesting question, according to Professor Dodds. “What would Greenland do if Trump offered a billion dollars a year in subsidies for another link with the US?”

Some Greenland politicians have floated the idea of ​​a special association, similar to the US agreement with the Marshall Islands. Essentially, Greenland would be sovereign but also financially supported by the US, in exchange for agreements that would benefit Washington in some strategic ways.

However, former Greenland leader Kleist-Johannesen expressed skepticism about the possibility of such a link-up succeeding. “I don’t think there is any benefit to this,” he said.

It is unclear how far Trump will pursue the Greenland purchase once he takes office. “Nobody knows if it is just a show-off, a threat to get something else, or what he wants to do,” Pram Gad said.